Yesenn El-Radhi

Economic Diversification in the Gulf States

Public Expenditure and Non-Oil Economic Growth in Bahrain, Oman and Qatar

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    Auteur Yesenn El-Radhi
    Editeur Gerlach Press, Gerlach Press
    Distributeur Editions de Boccard

    A long-standing economic policy goal of the oil-dependent GCC countries is to increase economic diversification. Over the last decades, GCC governments fostered the development of non-oil economies through large-scale public investments in the stocks of human and physical capital. This book takes a new look at economic diversification efforts by examining the impact of different public expenditure categories (capital, education, health) on non-oil GDP and labour productivity developments in the three GCC countries Bahrain, Oman and Qatar since the 1970s. Building both on an econometric analysis and detailed country studies, this book analyses not only whether public expenditure has been an important driver of overall non-oil economic growth but also how public expenditure impacted different potential sources of non-oil economic growth such as economy-wide investment or productivity levels. By elaborating the channels through which public expenditure tends to impact non-oil economic growth in Bahrain, Oman and Qatar, this book contributes to the academic and public debate about the effectiveness of ongoing diversification strategies in the GCC countries.

    Contents List of Tables viii List of Figures ix List of Abbreviations xi Acknowledgments xiii Introduction 1 I Public Expenditure and Long-Run Economic Growth: General Insights 11 1 Causes of Long-Run Economic Growth 13 1.1 Causes of Long-Run Economic Growth in Economic Theory 13 1.2 The Convergence Hypothesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 1.3 Searching for Correlates of Growth in a World of Model Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 2 Does Public Expenditure Cause Economic Growth? 45 2.1 Public Expenditure in Models of Economic Growth . . . . . 45 2.2 Empirical Evidence Capital and Current Expenditure . . . 51 2.3 Empirical Evidence Education and Health Expenditure . . 55 II Exploring the Links Between Public Expenditure and Non-Oil Economic Growth in Bahrain, Oman and Qatar 61 3 The Impact of Public Expenditure on Non-Oil GDP and on Labour Productivity: An Econometric Analysis 63 3.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 i ii 3.2 Current Status of Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 3.3 Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 3.4 Econometric Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 3.5 Empirical Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 3.6 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120 4 Bahrain: Non-Oil Development Efforts in a Semi-Rich Oil Rentier Economy 125 4.1 Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 4.2 Public Expenditure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128 4.3 Non-Oil GDP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135 4.4 Labour Productivity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 5 Oman: A Late Non-Oil Economic Blooming Caused by Rising Public Oil Rents 153 5.1 Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153 5.2 Public Expenditure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156 5.3 Non-Oil GDP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166 5.4 Labour Productivity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175 6 Qatar: Big Push Non-Oil Investment by Qatar Inc. 189 6.1 Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189 6.2 Public Expenditure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192 6.3 Non-Oil GDP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202 6.4 Labour Productivity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211 III The Impact of Public Expenditure on Potential Sources of Non-Oil Economic Growth 221 7 Public Expenditure and Private Sector Investment 223 7.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223 7.2 The Economic Roles of the Public and Private Sectors . . . 225 7.3 Crowding-In or Crowding-Out - An Econometric Analysis . 236 7.4 The Impact of Investment on Non-Oil Economic Growth Dynamics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251 8 Public Expenditure and Labour Productivity 261 8.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261 8.4 Public Expenditure and Structural Change . . . . . . . . . 278 Conclusion 291 References 301 Appendix A: Data Sources and Definition of Variables 337 Appendix B: Econometric Results Chapter 3 349 Appendix C: Robustness Checks Chapter 3 361 Change Variable Order Orthogonalised Impulse Responses . . . . 361 Robustness Check: Time Series in Current Prices . . . . . . . . . 365 Robustness Check: Private Sector Non-Oil GDP . . . . . . . . . 376 Appendix D: Econometric Results and Robustness Checks Chapter 7 385 Econometric Results Chapter 7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 385 Robustness Check: Time Series in Current Prices . . . . . . . . . 394 8.2 Labour Productivity Developments in International Perspective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263 8.3 Public Expenditure and Human Capital . . . . . . . . . . . 267

    Book Relié
    Nbr Pages Arabes 400
    Collection Hors collection Gerlach Press
    ISBN 13 978-39-599-4052-8
    Type Name